Weekly market news: 9 February 2026
Markets move into mid-February with attention returning to inflation trends, real interest rates, and the resilience of global growth.
After last week’s US jobs report and the Bank of England’s policy meeting, investors are now weighing whether central banks will be able to cut rates later in 2026 without reigniting inflation.
With liquidity fully normalised after the start of the year, markets are increasingly data-driven and less tolerant of surprises.
Market snapshot this morning
- Brent crude $67.6/bbl
- WTI $63.3/bbl
- Gold $4,996/oz
- US dollar index ~97.5 (DXY)
- GBP/USD ~1.36
- EUR/USD ~1.18
Why it matters and the implications
Oil: Both Brent and WTI are trading firmly, reflecting a combination of steady winter demand and ongoing geopolitical risk premia. These levels keep energy inflation in the system and make it harder for headline CPI to fall quickly, which matters for central banks hoping to ease later in the year.
Gold: Gold is sitting just below the psychological $5,000 level – an extraordinary signal of global risk aversion. This reflects a mix of falling real yields, heavy central bank buying, fiscal concerns in major economies and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. At these levels, gold is no longer just a hedge – it is a macro statement about confidence in fiat currencies and long-term monetary stability.
Dollar and FX: The US dollar index has weakened meaningfully, now below 98. That has lifted sterling and the euro, easing financial conditions outside the US and supporting global risk assets. A weaker dollar also tends to push commodities higher, reinforcing the strength seen in oil and gold.
Coming up this week
Monday 9 February
- Markets digest last week’s labour data and reassess rate-cut expectations.
- Quiet macro calendar – positioning and flows likely to dominate.
Tuesday 10 February
- US CPI (January) – the most important data point of the week, shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
- Germany CPI (final, January) – confirmation of eurozone inflation trends.
Wednesday 11 February
- UK GDP (Q4, preliminary) – key test of whether the UK entered 2026 with any real growth momentum.
- China credit and lending data (January) – signals on stimulus effectiveness and domestic demand.
Thursday 12 February
- US PPI (January) – wholesale inflation that feeds into future CPI.
- US weekly jobless claims – real-time labour-market check.
Friday 13 February
- UK industrial production (December) – snapshot of manufacturing health.
- US consumer sentiment (preliminary) – insight into confidence and inflation expectations.
What you might’ve missed last week
US employment data showed cooling but still-resilient labour markets, reinforcing the “slow easing, not rapid cuts” narrative.
Bond yields remained stable, with markets reluctant to price aggressive rate cuts while energy and gold stay elevated.
Equity markets edged higher, led by defensives and quality stocks rather than growth.
Why it matters
This week’s US inflation data is the single most important macro input for February. With oil near $70 and gold near $5,000, financial conditions are sending mixed signals: growth is slowing, but inflation risks have not disappeared.
If CPI undershoots, markets will lean more heavily into rate cuts later in 2026, weakening the dollar further and supporting equities and commodities.
If inflation surprises on the upside, the combination of high energy prices and strong gold will make central banks far more cautious – and could quickly revive volatility across bonds, FX and risk assets.
At this stage of the cycle, macro data matters more than narratives – and markets are positioned to react fast.
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