Weekly market news: 7 July 2025
Markets begin the second half of the year facing a packed calendar of central bank updates and signs of global growth divergence. After the US non-farm payrolls report added 147,000 jobs in June – above economists’ forecasts – and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, attention now turns to whether the Federal Reserve could move earlier on rate cuts.
Wednesday brings the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, which could clarify how close policymakers are to easing.
In contrast, the UK faces a more complicated picture, with strong wage growth and persistent services inflation muddying the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate change timeline.
May GDP figures on Thursday will help shape expectations ahead of the BoE’s next policy meeting. Across the eurozone, retail sales, industrial output and sentiment surveys will offer a health check on the bloc’s economy.
Currency markets remain volatile. The US dollar continued to weaken last week, while sterling firmed on fading BoE rate-cut bets. Oil prices have steadied around $68 for Brent crude and $66 for WTI as of 9am this morning, reflecting easing supply concerns but still elevated amid geopolitical risks.
Coming up this week
Monday 7 July
- Germany trade balance (May) – difference between exports and imports; a key indicator of eurozone manufacturing health.
- Eurozone investor confidence (July) – survey of investor sentiment across the bloc.
- China foreign exchange reserves (June) – gives a view on capital flows and the strength of the yuan.
Tuesday 8 July
- US consumer credit (May) – tracks borrowing by households; sharp increases may signal reliance on debt amid higher rates.
- Germany industrial production (May) – monthly read on factory output, useful for eurozone growth projections.
- Japan current account (May) – shows trade surplus or deficit, influencing yen strength and BoJ policy outlook.
Wednesday 9 July
- US Federal Reserve meeting minutes (June) – details of last month’s meeting, offering clues on rate-cut timing.
- China inflation rate (June) – year-on-year change in consumer prices; important for global commodity demand.
- UK Halifax house price index (June) – measures UK house price trends and consumer sentiment.
Thursday 10 July
- UK GDP (May) – monthly growth figures that will guide expectations for the BoE’s next move.
- US jobless claims (weekly) – closely watched for signs of weakness in the US labour market.
- Eurozone economic bulletin – the ECB’s updated view on economic and inflation trends.
Friday 11 July
- US producer price index (June) – wholesale inflation measure that can lead consumer price trends.
- UK trade balance (May) – difference between exports and imports, which feeds into GDP.
- Eurozone industrial production (May) – key input to Q2 growth estimates for the bloc.
What you might’ve missed last week
UK services inflation sticky: New data showed services prices rising at 5.7% annually, making it harder for the BoE to justify easing despite broader disinflation.
Oil stabilised: Brent crude hovered around $68 per barrel and WTI near $66 after last week’s Middle East tensions, easing slightly from earlier spikes but remaining sensitive to potential disruptions.
Eurozone inflation eased: June’s flash CPI dropped to 2.2% year-on-year, reinforcing expectations for another ECB rate cut by September.
Dollar dipped: The greenback softened slightly on the weak US jobs report, while sterling gained on relatively hawkish BoE pricing.
Why it matters
This week’s central bank updates and inflation data will test whether policymakers are ready to act. A dovish Fed tone could extend the recent market rally, while strong UK wage or inflation prints may cap hopes for an August BoE cut.
China’s inflation and trade figures will also be crucial for global demand signals, especially with commodities still sensitive to geopolitical risks.
Investors should prepare for a volatile week with potential shifts in rate expectations, currencies, and equity momentum.
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