Weekly market news: 3 November 2025
Markets kick off November facing a heavy data calendar and continued uncertainty from the US government shutdown. With some official US releases at risk of delay, investors are leaning on private surveys and high-frequency indicators this week for guidance on growth and labour-market momentum. China activity prints and global PMIs will also be closely watched for signs of stabilisation in demand, while OPEC+ supply signals keep oil markets sensitive.
Market snapshot this morning:
- Brent crude $65.0/bbl
- WTI $61.2/bbl
- Gold (spot) $4,015/oz
- US dollar index ~99.8 (DXY)
- GBP/USD ~1.313
- EUR/USD ~1.151
Brent and WTI are firmer after OPEC+ paused planned output increases for early 2026. That supports energy producers and commodity-linked assets but fragile demand in Asia caps upside—expect energy stocks to be sensitive to any fresh supply commentary.
Gold is trading elevated as investors seek insurance against political and policy uncertainty. Higher gold typically signals risk aversion and tends to support miners and other safe-haven plays.
The dollar is strong near the high-90s on DXY. That depresses dollar-priced asset returns for overseas buyers, but recent small pullbacks give some breathing room for emerging-market assets.
Sterling and the euro are moving on domestic data flows and global risk appetite; expect them to react quickly to PMI and employment surprises.
Coming up this week (top items likely to move markets)
Monday 3 November
- Global flash PMIs (S&P Global) – first look at manufacturing and services activity across major economies; a key read on near-term growth.
- Regional Asia activity prints (Japan, Korea) – gives an early signal on demand in the region that matters for commodities.
- Market reaction to OPEC+ commentary – any follow-up to the pause in Q1 output hikes will move oil and energy stocks.
Tuesday 4 November
- Eurozone country-level PMI detail / Germany factory orders – extra colour on continental industrial health and trade.
- UK second-tier activity releases and central-bank speeches – may tweak gilt and sterling moves if tone shifts.
- Select corporate earnings – company updates that can set sector tone.
Wednesday 5 November
- ADP monthly employment (Oct) – private payrolls data will be particularly important while official US jobs data may be disrupted.
- ISM services / US services PMIs (Oct) – national read on the large US services sector; can move the dollar and risk assets.
- Global services/composite PMIs – checks whether services are offsetting any manufacturing weakness.
Thursday 6 November
- US weekly jobless claims – a high-frequency labour-market signal.
- Eurozone money and second-tier indicators – extra inputs for ECB thinking.
- China trade and retail follow-ups (where scheduled) – further clues on external demand and domestic spending.
Friday 7 November
- US non-farm payrolls (scheduled) – the customary big mover for markets; note this could be delayed if the government shutdown persists, so markets will watch alternative indicators closely.
- Week-end flows and positioning – portfolio rebalancing can amplify moves in FX, rates and equities into the weekend.
What you might’ve missed last week
OPEC+ paused planned Q1 2026 output increases, which lifted oil prices and supported energy names.
Gold gained as investors bought safe havens amid policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
Markets leaned more on private and survey-based data while official US releases were at risk from the shutdown.
Why it matters
This week is likely to be noisy and data-dependent. Private employment and PMI prints will take on outsized importance if official US statistics are delayed.
Oil and gold will react quickly to any changes in supply commentary or risk sentiment, while the dollar and major FX pairs will be sensitive to labour-market signals and central-bank tone.
Keep an eye on liquidity around high-impact releases and expect sharper intraday moves.
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