Weekly market news: 29 September 2025
The final full week of September brings a busy calendar of activity and labour-market data that could move markets ahead of the October policy season.
UK quarterly GDP for Q2 is published mid-week and will be watched for signs of momentum going into Q4, while euro-area flash PMIs and US activity prints set the growth backdrop.
The week ends with the September US non-farm payrolls report (scheduled for Friday) – a key data point for Fed timing, although a possible US government shutdown could disrupt the jobs release.
Market context: oil eased after fresh supply flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan and talk of an OPEC+ output increase, leaving Brent around the high-$60s; the US dollar softened slightly as investors weighed the data calendar and political risk. Equity futures were cautiously positive into Monday’s open.
Coming up this week
Monday 29 September
- Eurozone flash PMIs (Sep) – early survey readings for manufacturing and services that show whether activity is expanding or contracting.
- US pending home sales (Aug) – an early indicator of housing demand that can foreshadow consumer spending trends.
- Japan industrial production (Aug, preliminary) – a read on factory output that helps set the tone for Asian demand.
Tuesday 30 September
- UK GDP, Q2 (final) – the Office for National Statistics’ final quarterly GDP update for April–June; confirms whether growth was revised up or down.
- Germany retail sales / business surveys – flash indicators for domestic demand in Europe’s largest economy.
- US Dallas Fed manufacturing index (Sep) – regional factory sentiment that feeds into the US growth picture.
Wednesday 1 October
- Eurozone flash HICP (Sep) – the euro-area flash inflation estimate for September, important for ECB outlook.
- US job openings (JOLTS, Aug) – monthly snapshot of vacancies that helps explain labour-market tightness.
- China official manufacturing PMI (Sep, flash) – an early gauge of Chinese factory activity and global demand for commodities.
Thursday 2 October
- US initial jobless claims (weekly) – weekly unemployment filings that give a near-real-time view of labour-market health.
- US ISM manufacturing PMI (Sep) – the national manufacturing survey that can move risk assets and yields.
- UK monthly GDP / second-tier data (any revisions) – follow-up reads to Tuesday’s national accounts.
Friday 3 October
- US non-farm payrolls (Sep) – the headline US jobs report for September; market-moving for Fed expectations (release could be affected if a government shutdown occurs).
- Canada GDP / payrolls (where scheduled) – regional growth and employment prints that influence commodity-linked assets.
- Japan retail sales / industrial prints – additional Asia data to round out the global picture.
What you might’ve missed last week
Fed pivot priced in: markets have been adjusting to the Fed’s September action and the prospect of further easing later this year; traders are sensitive to any data that would push cuts sooner or later.
Germany mixed signals: European surveys showed a split between services strength and manufacturing weakness, leaving growth prospects uneven.
Oil moved lower: Brent dipped after Kurdistan resumed exports and reports OPEC+ may boost output, capping recent supply worries.
Political risk: a looming US funding deadline kept traders on edge because a shutdown could delay key data releases (including the payrolls report).
Why it matters
This week stitches together activity, inflation-adjacent reads and the jobs story – all inputs that shape where central banks go next.
UK Q2 GDP will tell investors whether growth momentum is intact at home; euro-area PMIs and flash HICP will feed ECB thinking; and US payrolls and JOLTS will be decisive for the Fed’s path.
Add in commodity moves and political risk, and the result is a higher probability of headline-driven volatility across bonds, FX and equities.
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