Weekly market news: 28 July 2025
The final week of July could set the tone for the autumn as major central bank meetings and key data collide. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve holds its July policy meeting – minutes and forward guidance will be scrutinised for any shift toward cuts.
Thursday brings the European Central Bank’s decision, with markets split on whether they’ll trim rates by 10 bps. Friday’s final flash of eurozone July CPI will confirm whether price pressures have truly cooled.
In the UK, there’s a relative data lull – but sterling and gilts will likely react to offshore signals and the Bank of England’s commentary. US tech giants report earnings midweek, offering fresh insight into consumer demand and business confidence.
Brent crude is trading at $68.66 a barrel, and the DXY dollar index stands near 97.6, reflecting mixed growth signals and the US‑EU trade deal.
Please note – this will be the last weekly market news for the time being.
Coming up this week
Monday 28 July
- Germany Ifo business climate index (July) – July’s survey of German firms, a leading indicator for euro‑area industrial health (Ifo Institute).
- Japan retail sales (June) – June’s data on consumer spending in Japan, important for BoJ inflation outlook (Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs).
- US Dallas Fed manufacturing index (July) – regional factory sentiments from the Tenth District, early gauge of US industrial activity (Dallas Fed).
Tuesday 29 July
- US FHFA house price index (May) – home price movements for May, a barometer of US housing-market strength (FHFA).
- US consumer confidence (July) – The Conference Board’s gauge of household optimism, impacting spending forecasts.
- Eurozone M3 money supply (June) – broad liquidity measure tracked by the ECB ahead of its policy decision.
Wednesday 30 July
- US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (July) – Fed announces its target rate; statement and dot‑plot guide market expectations.
- Germany CPI (July, flash) – preliminary German inflation rate, key for euro‑area price dynamics (Destatis).
- US advance goods trade balance (June) – June’s trade surplus/deficit figure, which feeds into Q2 GDP revisions (Census Bureau).
Thursday 31 July
- European Central Bank interest rate decision – markets watch for another 10 bps cut or a pause, plus President Lagarde’s press conference.
- US initial jobless claims – weekly tally of unemployment filings, barometer of US labour‑market health (Department of Labor).
- Japan industrial production (June) – factory output for June, an input to Q2 GDP and BoJ policy deliberations (METI).
Friday 1 August
- Eurozone CPI (July, flash) – headline and core rate for July, decisive for ECB’s next moves (Eurostat).
- US ISM manufacturing PMI (July) – nationwide factory sentiment survey; above 50 indicates expansion (ISM).
- UK Nationwide house price index (July) – monthly house price changes, a signal of consumer confidence and lending trends (Nationwide).
What you might’ve missed last week
- US GDP (Q2 nowcast 2.1% annualised) showed continued consumer resilience despite tight policy.
- UK inflation cooled to 2.1% YoY in June, its lowest since July 2021.
- ECB flagged flexibility at June’s meeting, signalling cautious rate‑cut pacing.
- Oil prices steadied around $68–69 on easing Asia‑Pacific tensions and the US‑EU trade deal.
- Dollar rebound saw the DXY near 97.6, supported by mixed US growth data.
Why it matters
This week’s central bank verdicts and final flash inflation prints will cement expectations for the rest of 2025. A dovish tilt from the Fed or ECB could extend the market rally; any hawkish surprise could inject volatility.
Housing, PMI, and money‑supply figures offer crucial signals on growth and liquidity, while geopolitical uncertainties and trade developments keep oil and FX markets on edge.
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