Weekly market news: 24 March 2025
Markets are digesting last week’s central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England both opting to hold rates steady. Now, attention shifts to economic data and earnings reports, as investors look for clues on the health of global growth.
In the US, the Fed’s updated projections pointed to three potential rate cuts this year, but Chair Powell stressed that inflation must continue to trend lower before action is taken. Investors are now watching upcoming data – especially personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation – for confirmation.
On the corporate side, tech and retail earnings take the spotlight, with updates expected from Micron, H&M, and JD Sports. Investors are keen to see how consumer demand and AI-related investments are shaping company performance.
Coming up this week
- Monday: Germany purchasing managers index (PMI) (March) 🇩🇪, US S&P global manufacturing PMI (February) 🇺🇸
- Tuesday: US consumer confidence (March) 🇺🇸
- Wednesday: UK inflation (March) 🇬🇧, US durable goods orders (February) 🇺🇸
- Thursday: US GDP (Q4 2024, final estimate) 🇺🇸, ECB President Lagarde’s speech 🇪🇺
- Friday: UK GDP (Q4) 🇬🇧, UK retail sales (February) 🇬🇧, US personal consumption expenditures inflation (PCE) (February) 🇺🇸
Fund closures
There are no fund closures this week – all funds offered by Moneybox will be available for dealing as usual.
What you might’ve missed last week
Global: Central banks took centre stage, with the Fed and Bank of England holding rates steady but signaling flexibility.
US: The Fed’s latest dot plot indicated three rate cuts in 2025, sparking a rally in stocks. Meanwhile, retail sales rebounded modestly, hinting at resilient consumer spending.
Europe: The Bank of England remained cautious – holding rates steady. The Bank’s Governor Andrew Bailey stated that further evidence of cooling inflation was needed before deploying rate cuts.
Why it matters
The Fed’s message has calmed markets for now, but investors will need to see consistent progress on inflation for rate cuts to materialise. This week’s PCE inflation reading on Friday 28th March will be critical in shaping expectations – and the dollar continues to decrease in value against the pound in the popular currency pair GBP/USD (called ‘cable’ by traders).
In the UK, rising inflation complicates the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Markets are now questioning whether summer rate cuts are realistic, or if policymakers will delay until later in the year.
On the earnings front, retail and tech companies will provide insight into consumer demand and AI-driven growth. Strong results could boost sentiment, while weak numbers may reignite concerns about economic momentum.
The bottom line? After central bank signals, it’s now all about the data. Investors should expect choppy markets as economic reports and earnings shape the narrative for Q2.
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