Weekly market news: 23 February 2026
Markets head into the final week of February with investors focused on whether the disinflation trend is strong enough to unlock rate cuts later this year.
After last week’s heavy macro calendar, attention now shifts to forward-looking indicators – particularly PMIs, consumer confidence and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
With positioning still sensitive and safe-haven demand elevated, markets remain highly reactive to data surprises.
Market snapshot this morning
- Brent crude $67.8/bbl
- WTI $62.8/bbl
- gold $5,090/oz
- US dollar index ~98.0 (DXY)
- GBP/USD ~1.26
- EUR/USD ~1.08
Why it matters and the implications
Oil: Crude is holding in the mid-$60s for Brent, suggesting the market is balanced rather than pricing acute supply stress. Steady but not surging energy prices should help headline inflation continue easing, though they remain high enough to keep central banks cautious.
Gold: Gold has pushed above $5,000, an exceptionally elevated level that signals strong safe-haven demand and falling real yields. Moves of this scale typically reflect a mix of geopolitical hedging, fiscal concerns and expectations that global policy will gradually ease. It’s a clear sign markets are still carrying macro caution beneath the surface.
Dollar and FX: The dollar index is broadly rangebound around 98, but notably softer than late-2025 highs. Sterling and the euro are benefiting, though GBP/USD near 1.26 and EUR/USD near 1.08 suggest FX markets are stabilising rather than trending strongly. A softer dollar continues to provide a modest tailwind for commodities and global risk assets.
Coming up this week
Monday 23 February
- Markets consolidate after last week’s inflation and policy signals.
- Limited top-tier data – flows and positioning likely to drive early moves.
Tuesday 24 February
- Germany Ifo business climate (February) – key forward-looking gauge for Europe’s largest economy.
- US consumer confidence (February) – insight into household spending resilience.
Wednesday 25 February
- UK public finances (January) – signals on borrowing and fiscal headroom.
- US new home sales (January) – read on housing demand and rate sensitivity.
Thursday 26 February
- US durable goods orders (January) – indicator of business investment momentum.
- US weekly jobless claims – high-frequency labour-market check.
Friday 27 February
- US core PCE inflation (January) – the week’s key release and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
- Chicago PMI (February) – early signal on US manufacturing activity.
What you might’ve missed last week
Markets digested the latest inflation data, which broadly supported the narrative of gradual disinflation rather than a rapid drop.
Bond yields remained range-bound as investors awaited clearer confirmation that rate cuts are approaching.
Safe-haven demand stayed firm, with gold holding at record territory and the dollar slightly softer.
Why it matters
With central banks increasingly data-dependent, this week’s core PCE inflation print could be pivotal. If inflation continues to cool, markets will likely strengthen their conviction around rate cuts later in 2026, supporting equities and risk assets.
However, with oil still firm and gold signalling elevated macro caution, policymakers are unlikely to rush. That means volatility could return quickly if inflation or growth data reveals any surprises.
As February draws to a close, markets remain finely balanced between soft-landing optimism and lingering inflation risk – and incoming data will determine which narrative wins out.
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