Weekly market news: 2 March 2026
Markets start the week on edge after a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The developing crisis around the Strait of Hormuz – a key artery for global energy flows – has injected fresh volatility into commodities, currencies and risk assets. Investors will also be watching key US and global activity data for clues on growth momentum.
Oil and gold have moved higher on safe-haven demand and supply fears, while the US dollar remains under pressure near multi-year lows. With geopolitical risk now front and centre, markets look set for another volatile week.
Market snapshot this morning
- Brent crude ~$80.0/bbl
- WTI ~$75.6/bbl
- US dollar index ~97.9 (DXY)
- GBP/USD ~1.264
- EUR/USD ~1.178
- Gold ~$5,380/oz
Oil has jumped as traders price in potential disruption to Middle East supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global seaborne oil. Brent has surged toward $80 amid fears shipping could be curtailed.
Gold is rallying strongly as investors rotate into safe havens following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, with spot prices above $5,380/oz and testing recent highs.
Meanwhile, the US dollar remains soft near the high-90s on the DXY. Structural pressure has come from trade tensions and shifting global capital flows, though geopolitical stress can intermittently support the currency.
Implication: markets are in classic risk-off mode – supportive for commodities and gold, but creating cross-currents in FX and equities.
Coming up this week
Monday 2 March
- US ISM manufacturing PMI (Feb) – key read on US industrial momentum
- China Caixin manufacturing PMI (Feb) – gauge of Chinese factory activity
Wednesday 4 March
- US ADP employment change (Feb) – preview of labour market strength
- Eurozone producer prices (Jan) – pipeline inflation signal
Thursday 5 March
- Eurozone retail sales (Jan) – consumer demand check
- US weekly jobless claims – high-frequency labour market signal
Friday 6 March
- US non-farm payrolls (Feb) – the week’s key macro release
- US unemployment rate (Feb) – Fed-sensitive labour gauge
What you might’ve missed last week
Middle East tensions surged: Joint US-Israel strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory threats and shipping disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing energy markets higher and lifting safe-haven demand.
Dollar remains fragile: The greenback is still trading near recent lows after a difficult start to 2026, reflecting trade policy uncertainty and shifting global positioning.
Gold demand jumped: Investors piled into bullion as geopolitical risk intensified, driving prices back toward record territory.
Oil volatility returned: Crude benchmarks have risen sharply in recent sessions as traders reassess supply risks tied to the Middle East.
Why it matters
Geopolitics has quickly become the dominant market driver.
If tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalate further, energy prices could rise again – potentially complicating the global disinflation story and delaying central bank rate cuts. Conversely, any signs of de-escalation could trigger a sharp reversal in oil and safe havens.
At the same time, this week’s US labour market data remains crucial. A softer payrolls print would reinforce expectations for Fed easing later in 2026, while another resilient report could stabilise the dollar and push yields higher.
Investors should expect elevated volatility across commodities, currencies and global equities.
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