Weekly market news: 12 January 2026
Markets settle into the new year with attention firmly back on inflation, growth and the timing of interest-rate cuts.
After last week’s US jobs report set the early tone for 2026, investors are now watching whether inflation data continues to cool enough to give central banks room to ease policy later this year.
With liquidity fully restored after the holidays, markets may react more sharply to surprises.
Market snapshot this morning
- Brent crude $64.0/bbl
- WTI $60.1/bbl
- gold $4,145/oz
- US dollar index ~98.4 (DXY)
- GBP/USD ~1.33
- EUR/USD ~1.17
Why it matters
Oil: Prices have edged higher on signs of firmer winter demand and continued OPEC+ supply discipline. Stable oil prices help keep inflation expectations anchored but remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
Gold: Bullion remains elevated as investors balance optimism about rate cuts with lingering geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
FX and rates: The dollar is broadly steady after easing earlier in January. Sterling and the euro are supported by expectations that UK and eurozone inflation will continue to slow.
Coming up this week
Monday 12 January
- Quiet start to the week with limited top-tier data – markets consolidate after last week’s jobs numbers.
- Ongoing reassessment of rate-cut expectations across the US, UK, and eurozone.
Tuesday 13 January
- US inflation (December) – a key release that will shape Federal Reserve expectations for early-2026 policy.
- Germany inflation (final, December) – confirmation of eurozone price trends.
Wednesday 14 January
- UK inflation (December) – a major input for the Bank of England as it considers when to begin easing policy.
- China trade data (December) – signals on global demand and export momentum.
Thursday 15 January
- US retail sales (December) – insight into consumer strength at the end of 2025.
- US weekly jobless claims – a high-frequency check on labour-market conditions.
Friday 16 January
- UK retail sales (December) – gauge of consumer demand during the key Christmas period.
- US industrial production (December) – snapshot of manufacturing and energy output.
What you might’ve missed last week
- The first full trading week of the year saw markets regain liquidity and direction, with equities edging higher on hopes of rate cuts later in 2026.
- US labour-market data suggested cooling but still-resilient employment, supporting a “soft landing” narrative.
- Bond yields were little changed as investors awaited clearer inflation signals.
Why it matters
This week’s inflation data in the US and UK will be central to shaping expectations for monetary policy in 2026. Softer-than-expected readings would reinforce the case for rate cuts later in the year, supporting equities and risk assets.
Any upside surprises, however, could push yields higher and revive volatility. As markets move deeper into January, the balance between inflation progress and growth resilience will remain the key driver of sentiment.
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