Weekly market news: 1 December 2025
Markets start the final month of the year with a stacked data slate that will be read as a dress rehearsal for the Federal Reserve’s meeting on 10 December.
Early-month PMI prints and the ISM manufacturing release on Monday give the first read on November activity, while Friday’s core PCE and PPI (wholesale) prints are the high-stakes inflation numbers that could reprice rate-cut timing.
Oil and safe-haven flows are sensitive to fresh geopolitical headlines and OPEC+ messaging.
Market snapshot this morning:
- Brent crude $63.4/bbl
- WTI $59.6/bbl
- gold $4,236/oz
- US dollar index ~99–99.5 (DXY)
- GBP/USD ~1.31
- EUR/USD ~1.15
Oil: prices are firmer after OPEC+ maintained its current output plans; that supports energy stocks and keeps a short-term inflation upside risk alive for markets.
Gold: bullion is bid on risk-off flows and firm market odds of a Fed cut later in December; higher gold typically signals investor caution and supports miners.
Dollar and FX: the dollar is trading around recent ranges as markets balance Fed-cut pricing against mixed data; a weaker dollar would ease pressure on commodity and emerging-market assets, while a rebound would make dollar-priced investments more expensive for overseas buyers.
The calendar: ISM and global PMI prints at the start of the week set the activity tone, while core PCE/PPI on Friday are the numbers most likely to move yields and risk assets heading into the Fed meeting.
Coming up this week
Monday 1 December
- ISM manufacturing PMI (Nov) – first major US activity read for the month; can move stocks and the dollar.
- Eurozone flash PMIs (Nov) – early snapshot of services and manufacturing across the euro area.
- China manufacturing PMI (Nov, official / Caixin) – a read on Chinese factory demand that affects commodities.
Tuesday 2 December
- Germany industrial production / retail (where scheduled) – extra colour on euro-area growth.
- UK second-tier activity prints and BoE commentary (where scheduled) – may tweak gilt and sterling moves.
- Selected corporate earnings and eurozone detail PMI releases.
Wednesday 3 December
- US private payrolls / ADP (if scheduled) and regional Fed indicators – alternative labour readings ahead of Friday’s PCE.
- Eurozone money / labour secondary reads – more inputs for ECB watchers.
- Company results that could change sector leadership.
Thursday 4 December
- US weekly initial jobless claims – high-frequency labour signal.
- China trade / credit follow-ups (where scheduled) – further clues on external demand.
- Final PMI follow-through prints for Europe/Asia.
Friday 5 December
- US core PCE (Nov) & PPI (Nov) – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE) and wholesale inflation; these are the week’s marquee releases and likely market movers ahead of the Fed meeting.
What you might’ve missed last week
OPEC+ signalled continued output discipline, helping push oil a touch higher and keeping energy names supported.
Gold rose to multi-week highs as markets priced increased odds of a December Fed cut and sought safe havens amid data uncertainty.
Early flash PMIs and private indicators showed a mixed picture: services holding up in some regions while manufacturing remains under pressure.
Putting it all together
This is a data-heavy week that sets the stage for the Fed meeting on 10 December. If ISM and PMI prints show activity is cooling and Friday’s core PCE undershoots expectations, markets will lean more heavily into earlier and larger rate cuts – boosting risk assets and pressuring the dollar.
Conversely, stronger-than-expected readings would push yields higher and tighten financial conditions. With oil and geopolitical headlines still able to move inflation expectations, any upside surprise in energy prices could complicate a dovish shift.
Capital at risk. All investing should be long term. The value of your investments can go up and down, and you may get back less than you invest.
We do not offer personalised financial advice. For guidance, seek an independent adviser.